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Pax Silica's First Test Case

What the Philippines hub actually buys. A small piece of monitoring the hardware supply chain for frontier AI model development: the Philippines' April 2026 accession to the Pax Silica coalition, its actual position in the semiconductor value chain, and what the New Clark City hub deal does and doesn't commit to.

Writeup: https://ralphptorres.github.io/paxsilica

What this is

A handful of charts and tables anchor the argument: a margin ladder comparing chip design, foundry, memory, and assembly/test/packaging margins; a Philippine export trend line; a regional competitive-set table benchmarking the Philippines against Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia on exports, incentives, wages, and fab status; a national semiconductor talent-pipeline comparison; a Pax Silica accession timeline; and a specificity index scoring how concrete each signatory's accession language actually is. Each is built directly in src/script.js from the data in data/, and every figure in the page links back to its source. See Section 6 of the page for the full reference list.

index.html is a thin shell of section headers and mount points. The prose itself lives in content/, one markdown file per block, and gets fetched and rendered at load time by src/markdown.js. That keeps the writing editable as text, separate from the page structure.

Data sources, in short

Export figures come from the Philippine Statistics Authority's OpenSTAT API. Margin figures come from each company's own financial filings, not blended industry averages. Pax Silica membership and deal terms come from US State Department releases, read directly. Sector structure comes from an OECD report and an ASEAN Secretariat investment report (local copies are kept outside this repo, in ../../ref/). Regional incentive, wage, and workforce-target figures for Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia come from each country's own investment authority, tax office, or national statistics agency, not one harmonized source. Deal specifics and the May 2026 legal-jurisdiction dispute are cross-checked across Philippine and international press coverage, because no single primary document covers all of it.

How the PSA export data was built

scripts/build_data.py rebuilds data/psa-electronics-exports.json straight from PSA's OpenSTAT PXWeb API. PSA's portal blocks a plain curl, but the API responds fine to a browser-like request, so the script just sets a normal user agent. It sums FOB values for GROUP codes 8100-8190 (the ten electronics subcategories) across all destination countries, table DB/2L/IMT/PMG/0012L4DNDX0.px, then checks the total against PSA's separate total-trade release. The result lands almost exactly on SEIPI's independently published figures, which is why this method was trusted over the alternative.

An earlier attempt used PSA's per-commodity, per-country tables instead. Pulling that in full means iterating over roughly 200 destination countries per year, and a partial manual export undercounted total exports by roughly 60%.

uv run scripts/build_data.py

Run locally

uv run scripts/serve.py

Then open http://localhost:8731

Known soft spots

Section 6 of the page covers this directly. Foxconn's role as anchor tenant is reported but has no primary confirmation yet. Individual accession language is directly checked for all 17 signatories that got their own State Dept release; the remaining seven signed jointly at the founding summit, so their "what they bring" claims trace to one shared fact sheet. Two of those seven, the UAE and the Netherlands, have a genuine conflict between primary sources over whether they were founding members at all, left unresolved rather than picking a side. Displacement estimates come from a single advocacy group rather than government data. The groundbreaking timeline has shifted across BCDA's own public statements by roughly two years. The regional competitive-set and talent-pipeline tables added later use each country's own trade/data classification, not one harmonized series, so treat cross-country rankings there as directional.

License

MIT. See license.txt.

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What the Philippines hub actually buys: a small research note on Pax Silica

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