BET-Tephra@OV is a Python software package to compute and visualize long- and short- term eruption forecasting and probabilistic tephra hazard assessment of Campi Flegrei caldera. The tool is based on the procedure described by Selva et al. (2014) that combines the Bayesian Event Tree method (Marzocchi et al. 2008; 2010) and the Fall3D tephra dispersal model (Costa et al. 2006; Folch et al., 2009).
BET is a probabilistic model that merges all kinds of volcanological information from theoretical/empirical models, geological and historical data, and monitoring observations to obtain probability of any relevant volcanic event. Such probabilities represent an homogeneous and quantitative synthesis of the present knowledge about the volcano. Dealing with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties BET does not rule out any possibility, but it shapes the probability distribution of the event considered around the most likely outcome accounting for all the information reported above. BET estimates short- and long-term EF, depending on the present state of the volcano.
BET_Tephra@OV was realized by Dr. Perfetti with the contributions by Dr. Costa, Dr. Selva, Dr. Sandri, Dr. Macedonio, and Dr. Tonini, in the framework of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) - INGV Research Project “OBIETTIVO 5 (V2): Implementazione nell’ambito delle attività di sorveglianza del vulcano Campi Flegrei di una procedura operativa per la stima in tempo quasi reale della probabilità di eruzione, probabilità di localizzazione della bocca eruttiva, e probabilità di accumulo delle ceneri al suolo in caso di eruzione di tipo esplosivo”, 2014-2015 (Responsible Dr. Giuseppe De Natale, Director of INGV - Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli), under the Coordination of Dr. Antonio Costa (INGV, Bologna).
- Costa A., Macedonio G., Folch A. (2006) A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 241, 634/647, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2005.11.019
- Folch A., Costa A., Macedonio G. (2009) FALL3D: A Computational Model for Volcanic Ash Transport and Deposition, Comput. Geosci., 35, 1334-1342, doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2008.08.008
- Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J (2008). BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcan., 70, 623-632, doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y
- Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J (2010), BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment, Bull. Volcanol., 72 (6), 717-733, doi:10.1007/s00445-010-0357-8
- Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119 (12), 1-22, doi:10.1002/2014JB011252
- Selva J, Marzocchi W, Papale P, Sandri L (2012a), Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples, J. Applied Volcanology, 1:5, doi:10.1186/2191-5040-1-5
- Selva J., Orsi G., Di Vito M.A., Marzocchi W., and L. Sandri (2012b). Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Bull Volcanol, 74:497–510, doi:10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2.
sudo apt-get install build-essential git virtualenvwrapper
libmysqlclient-dev python-dev libpq-dev freetds-dev \
netcdf-bin libnetcdf-dev libhdf5-dev ntp libblas-dev \
liblapack-dev gfortran python-redis libffi-dev gdal-bin
sudo apt-get install libfreetype6-dev libpng12-dev \
libgeos++-dev libgeos-dev
sudo apt-get install mpich2 mpich2-doc libmpich2-dev ncl-ncarg
sudo apt-get install gmt imagemagick ghoscript
LC_ALL=C pip install basemap --allow-external basemap --allow-unverified basemap
pip install GDAL==1.10.0 --global-option=build_ext --global-option="-I/usr/include/gdal"
USE_SETUPCFG=0 HDF5_INCDIR=/usr/include/hdf5/serial HDF5_LIBDIR=/usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/hdf5/serial pip install netCDF4
sudo apt-get install supervisor
Only on master server (ceneri):
apt-get install rabbitmq-server redis-server
from netCDF4 import Dataset
rootgrp = Dataset("examples/CFH-2015101500-1.res.nc", "r", format="NETCDF3_64BIT")
# Caso fall3d, ci sono solo 2 frame e leggo il secondo
rootgrp['LOAD'][1] from bet.messaging.celery.tasks import add, run_demo_model, build_input_params
from celery import chain
(build_input_params.s("etc/bet.cfg") | run_demo_model.s())().get()
chain(get_conf("etc/bet.cfg"),
mod_bet = glob(os.path.join("bet","*","*.py"))
CELERY_IMPORTS=tuple([x.replace("/",".").replace(".__init__.py","").replace(".py","") for x in mod_bet] celery -A bet.messaging.celery.tasks worker --loglevel=info
celery -A bet.messaging.celery.tasks worker -Q matlab_jobs --loglevel=info --hostname=w_matlab@%h
celery -A bet.messaging.celery.tasks worker -Q master_jobs --loglevel=info --hostname=w_master@%h
celery -A bet.messaging.celery.tasks worker -Q default --loglevel=info --hostname=w_default@%hSee https://it.mathworks.com/help/matlab/matlab-engine-for-python.html
Install official wrapper https://it.mathworks.com/help/matlab/matlab_external/install-the-matlab-engine-for-python.html
See https://github.com/adnanh/webhook/
Dependencies: sudo apt-get install golang
http://docs.celeryproject.org/en/latest/userguide/workers.html#autoreloading
Dependencies: pip install pyinotify
[program:celery_bet]
command=/home/paolo/.virtualenvs/bet/bin/celery --autoreload -A bet.messaging.celery.tasks worker -Q default --loglevel=info
directory=/opt/bet
user=paolo
numprocs=1
stdout_logfile=/opt/bet/logs/celeryd.log
stderr_logfile=/opt/bet/logs/celeryd.log
autostart=true
autorestart=true
startsecs=10
stopwaitsecs=600
# environment = DJANGO_SETTINGS_MODULE=myapp.settings.prod
If a configuration example is modified, supervisord needs to be reloaded
supervisorctl reread
supervisorctl update
rabbitmqctl stop_app
rabbitmqctl reset
rabbitmqctl start_app
rabbitmqctl add_vhost bet_vhost
rabbitmqctl add_vhost bet_dev_vhost
rabbitmqctl add_user bet_user pass
rabbitmqctl add_user bet_dev_user pass
rabbitmqctl set_permissions -p bet_vhost bet_user '.*' '.*' '.*'
rabbitmqctl set_permissions -p bet_dev_vhost bet_dev_user '.*' '.*' '.*'