CBO 2026 baseline update

cps_stage1/stage1.py

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 def main(syr=2014):
     SYR = str(syr)  # Start year of CPS
-    EYR = 2035  # Last year in our extrapolation
+    EYR = 2036  # Last year in our extrapolation
 
     # Read in state SOI estimates
     soi_estimates = pd.read_csv(

cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv

@@ -4,21 +4,21 @@ Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59
 HH,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22854626,22821510,23221112,23585391,23903307,24185899,24470699,24744460,25022636,25303020,25585612,25872620,26161835,26455466,26751304,27049351,27354020,27658689,27969982,28281275,28599191
 SS_return,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,31684352,32736570,33818929,34953351,36139836,37386604,38614191,39891101,41154310,42384637,43664287,44875433,46007115,47097695,48141692,49089784,49843325,50509181,51128455,51758690,52484829
 Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924,112452416,113150216,113828632,114487666,115137008
-INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,147423693,155851925,184373437,175945205,192488933,201542637,213364053,231127451,248155919,263292336,278288021,293580805,307075359,322555785,337786022
-DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401130545,421201081,463481652,494147800,519032208,531334326,636933872,674222278,713370011,743246583,770678014,802108269,834455452,867413921,901111027,935674119,971281492,1007958613
-SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485895257,491852335,503691560,536549154,552846820,573190804,618974134,645574923,673749280,699638217,724328245,748681080,773333642,799260045,827322004,858493633,891650954,925407730
-SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77467361,78425945,80308673,85549315,88149545,91386919,98688229,102930107,107418805,111551623,115489279,119369535,123301451,127434268,131911487,136882348,142163169,147541572
+INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,134695343,144655980,157571972,175945205,192488933,201542637,213364053,231127451,248155919,263292336,278288021,293580805,307075359,322555785,337786022
+DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401130545,421201081,463481652,543865676,577588252,589126263,636933872,674222278,713370011,743246583,770678014,802108269,834455452,867413921,901111027,935674119,971281492,1007958613
+SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485895257,491852335,503691560,528568917,538722176,565510295,618974134,645574923,673749280,699638217,724328245,748681080,773333642,799260045,827322004,858493633,891650954,925407730
+SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77467361,78425945,80308673,84275029,85893716,90164294,98688229,102930107,107418805,111551623,115489279,119369535,123301451,127434268,131911487,136882348,142163169,147541572
 CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1631599158,1522675479,1983609468,3582355270,2216825992,1630541647,2364595591,2497983035,2427270769,2360929551,2361775560,2406896049,2473660271,2553960640,2645259129,2742550181,2844000779,2950104428
-Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1069779122,1093456192,1161502899,1239696921,1300647139,1361928969,1422348608,1487543454,1553932103,1620785008,1687770557,1757210033,1828705500,1903251795,1981578462
-SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1348629314,1385360103,1322308403,1621317337,1711451646,1505793081,2221112501,2278747680,2301090832,2309384881,2305407123,2319879393,2380222832,2482459682,2598068571,2711053832,2821923264,2937108987
-SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,212774811,218567895,208634508,255797226,270021168,237566540,350423168,359521816,363044412,364363299,363728897,366016080,375532098,391675938,409906624,427736636,445216057,463396659
-SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,848657280,898463271,939067232,1016191751,1138003633,1234222366,1313187292,1389794197,1469219225,1554568059,1642447452,1732167252,1823152330,1915172637,2008055634,2105424621,2207567162
-UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,8711705,11041927,12180408,12736332,13235666,13651777,14094519,14567222,15036595,15482666,15925409,16398111
-wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,170920853,185370987,194653827,206234512,216317596,226274928,235820705,245778036,255872553,266024229,276415979,287104963,298011156,309351768,321081070
-wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,391709690,424825940,446099986,472640145,495748161,518567982,540444619,563264439,586398655,609663868,633479272,657975865,682970250,708960218,735840971
-wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,570021256,618212472,649170753,687792353,721419451,754627164,786462342,819670055,853335279,887191133,921847633,957495407,993867575,1031688529,1070805766
-wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,625800532,678707487,712695182,755096088,792013757,828471001,863421402,899878647,936838172,974006982,1012054784,1051190862,1091122218,1132644131,1175589175
-wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,625519811,678403032,712375481,754757367,791658475,828099366,863034089,899474979,936417926,973570062,1011600796,1050719319,1090632762,1132136050,1175061829
-wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1370436973,1486297606,1560727064,1653580562,1734426353,1814263862,1890801543,1970639053,2051576505,2132972266,2216292928,2301996798,2389442245,2480370844,2574415946
-wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1256753103,1363002580,1431257781,1516408667,1590547938,1663762569,1733951108,1807165739,1881389068,1956032687,2032441528,2111035879,2191227335,2274613001,2360856642
-wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5133013315,5566972838,5845750633,6193536231,6496346595,6795380412,7082054622,7381088439,7684242125,7989112423,8301192491,8622198942,8949728519,9290304347,9642553137
+Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1075416519,1097236565,1154340088,1239696921,1300647139,1361928969,1422348608,1487543454,1553932103,1620785008,1687770557,1757210033,1828705500,1903251795,1981578462
+SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1348629314,1385360103,1322308403,1710012883,1940553595,2074951044,2221112501,2278747680,2301090832,2309384881,2305407123,2319879393,2380222832,2482459682,2598068571,2711053832,2821923264,2937108987
+SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,212774811,218567895,208634508,269787441,306182034,327384389,350423168,359521816,363044412,364363299,363728897,366016080,375532098,391675938,409906624,427736636,445216057,463396659
+SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,848657280,898463271,939067232,1016191751,1138003633,1234049828,1311634449,1389794197,1470139428,1555315724,1643310143,1733317505,1824417609,1916150353,2012484111,2113648936,2219932391
+UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,9600518,11041927,12180408,12736332,13235666,13651777,14094519,14567222,15036595,15482666,15925409,16398111
+wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,171298111,184639335,196277181,206234512,216317596,226274928,235820705,245778036,255872553,266024229,276415979,287104963,298011156,309351768,321081070
+wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,392574276,423149168,449820325,472640145,495748161,518567982,540444619,563264439,586398655,609663868,633479272,657975865,682970250,708960218,735840971
+wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,571279413,615772411,654584640,687792353,721419451,754627164,786462342,819670055,853335279,887191133,921847633,957495407,993867575,1031688529,1070805766
+wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,627181806,676028654,718638843,755096088,792013757,828471001,863421402,899878647,936838172,974006982,1012054784,1051190862,1091122218,1132644131,1175589175
+wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,626900465,675725401,718316476,754757367,791658475,828099366,863034089,899474979,936417926,973570062,1011600796,1050719319,1090632762,1132136050,1175061829
+wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1373461815,1480431245,1573743053,1653580562,1734426353,1814263862,1890801543,1970639053,2051576505,2132972266,2216292928,2301996798,2389442245,2480370844,2574415946
+wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1259527021,1357622859,1443194036,1516408667,1590547938,1663762569,1733951108,1807165739,1881389068,1956032687,2032441528,2111035879,2191227335,2274613001,2360856642
+wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5144342954,5545000204,5894502414,6193536231,6496346595,6795380412,7082054622,7381088439,7684242125,7989112423,8301192491,8622198942,8949728519,9290304347,9642553137

cps_stage2/solver.jl

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol)
 
 end
 
-year_list = [x for x in 2014:2035]
+year_list = [x for x in 2014:2036]
 tol = 0.70
 
 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order)

cps_stage2/stage2.py

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
 STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv")
 STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv")
 START_YEAR = 2014
-END_YEAR = 2035
+END_YEAR = 2036
 
 # Read hashes used to see which years can be skipped
 with open(Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "datahashes.json")) as f:

docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md

@@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
 To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the 
 specific variables.
 
-Previous Document: February 2023
+Previous Document: January 2025
 
-Current Document: January 2025
+Current Document: February 2026
 
 | Variable | Name In CBO Document                                |
 |----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/produ
 
 Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
 
-Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2026](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51138-2026-02-Revenue.xlsx)
 
 In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
 tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
@@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projectio
 
 Previous: [Fall 2022 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
-Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/24projpub6187tables.xlsx)
+Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/25projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
 The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the
 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the
@@ -96,16 +96,19 @@ Source: [OASI Trust Fund Annual Trustees Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/)
 Table VI.C4. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Table VI.C4, Column:
 `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 
-Previous: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Previous: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
-Current: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Current: [2025 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2025/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
 Projections are taken directly from the `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 column of this table.
 
 ### CPIM (CPI Medical Care)
 
-Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
+Previous: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
+
+Current: [CBO Economic Projections](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51135-2026-02-Economic-Projections.xlsx)
+
 
 Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
 Access Date: 
@@ -120,13 +123,15 @@ Manual Instructions:
 6. Find the average difference between CPI-U from the CBO 10-Year projections
 7. Add this average difference to the CBO CPI-U projections
 
+NOTE: The latest CBO Economic Projections contain forecasts for the CPI-U Medical Care. This is now used in CBO_baseline.csv for CPIM 
+
 ### UCOMP
 
 Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#24)
 
 Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
 
-Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2026](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51316-2026-02-unemployment.xlsx)
 
 Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
 billions rather than millions of dollars

puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
-,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035
-GDP,14718.6,14418.7,14964.4,15517.9,16163.2,16800.0,17348.1,18036.7,18624.5,19479.6,20527.2,21372.6,21060.5,23315.1,25419.5,26438.4,29166.2,30441.1,31640.6,32841.0,34078.4,35378.4,36738.8,38151.3,39626.7,41154.2,42727.6,44345.4
-TPY,12429.6,12087.5,12429.3,13202.0,13887.7,14166.9,14694.2,15458.5,15928.7,16850.2,17706.0,18424.4,19832.3,21294.8,21766.7,23120.9,24676.7,25890.0,27110.3,28313.3,29611.2,30932.5,32263.0,33596.3,34978.9,36402.2,37885.7,39444.9
-Wages,6531.9,6251.4,6377.5,6633.2,6932.1,7124.7,7477.8,7854.8,8085.3,8474.7,8900.5,9323.5,9457.4,10290.1,11160.2,11719.0,12416.2,13022.9,13622.7,14197.0,14796.4,15404.3,16015.7,16641.4,17284.4,17941.1,18623.9,19330.3
-SCHC,979.5,937.5,986.7,1068.1,1187.9,1253.5,1268.5,1336.8,1298.7,1466.4,1541.5,1560.5,1598.0,1702.3,1754.0,1818.5,1963.7,2048.2,2137.5,2219.7,2298.0,2375.3,2453.5,2535.7,2624.8,2723.7,2828.8,2935.9
-SCHF,47.0,35.5,46.0,75.5,72.3,83.2,78.1,40.0,43.2,39.5,38.9,38.4,45.2,51.3,90.1,93.8,40.1,42.2,45.5,48.2,50.6,52.8,54.9,56.8,58.5,60.0,61.5,62.8
-INTS,1361.6,1264.3,1195.0,1231.6,1255.9,1255.2,1302.0,1302.8,1415.3,1553.4,1615.0,1652.0,1647.3,1658.6,1753.4,2074.3,1979.6,2165.6,2267.6,2400.5,2600.4,2792.0,2962.3,3131.0,3303.0,3454.8,3629.0,3800.4
-DIVS,805.4,553.7,544.6,682.2,832.7,824.5,815.5,951.1,962.5,1154.5,1253.3,1316.0,1448.1,1543.9,1621.6,1660.1,1990.0,2106.5,2228.8,2322.2,2407.9,2506.1,2607.1,2710.1,2815.4,2923.4,3034.6,3149.2
-RENTS,262.1,333.7,402.8,485.3,533.0,595.8,610.8,659.6,707.4,652.7,681.9,692.1,719.9,723.8,783.4,840.8,1052.8,1075.9,1115.5,1150.9,1178.9,1208.7,1239.6,1236.6,1240.7,1258.5,1288.0,1329.7
-CGNS,498.0,263.0,394.0,404.0,647.0,511.0,716.0,725.0,641.0,871.3,944.0,881.0,1147.7,2072.7,1282.6,943.4,1368.1,1445.3,1404.4,1366.0,1366.5,1392.6,1431.2,1477.7,1530.5,1586.8,1645.5,1706.9
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