diff --git a/pkg/statistics/BUILD.bazel b/pkg/statistics/BUILD.bazel
index 6018f61cb8328..c67cdb90b630d 100644
--- a/pkg/statistics/BUILD.bazel
+++ b/pkg/statistics/BUILD.bazel
@@ -67,6 +67,7 @@ go_test(
         "bench_daily_test.go",
         "builder_test.go",
         "cmsketch_test.go",
+        "estimate_test.go",
         "fmsketch_test.go",
         "histogram_bench_test.go",
         "histogram_test.go",
@@ -80,7 +81,7 @@ go_test(
     data = glob(["testdata/**"]),
     embed = [":statistics"],
     flaky = True,
-    shard_count = 43,
+    shard_count = 44,
     deps = [
         "//pkg/config",
         "//pkg/meta/model",
diff --git a/pkg/statistics/estimate.go b/pkg/statistics/estimate.go
index f6055cfda309d..c4f1648a69fb9 100644
--- a/pkg/statistics/estimate.go
+++ b/pkg/statistics/estimate.go
@@ -65,3 +65,127 @@ func EstimateNDVByGEE(sampleNDV, singletonItems, sampleSize, rowCount uint64) ui
 	}
 	return ndv
 }
+
+// EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches estimates the global singleton count using NDV and singleton sketches.
+// For each node i, we ask: how many of node i's local singletons
+// never appeared in any other node? Those are the values that are
+// truly unique across the entire dataset, contributed by node i.
+//
+// We compute this by merging all *other* nodes' NDV sketches (their full
+// distinct-value sets), then checking how much node i's local singletons
+// grow that union. The growth is approximately node i's singleton's
+// FMSketch that no other node has seen.
+//
+// Summing these per-node contributions gives the global singleton estimate.
+//
+// The implementation splits the nodes into two halves, precomputes one NDV
+// union per half, and then rebuilds only the suffix within each half while
+// keeping a rolling in-half prefix. That keeps the O(k²) time complexity
+// but cuts repeated merge work to roughly one quarter of the naive
+// rebuild-from-scratch loop while preserving O(1) extra sketches. A full
+// prefix-suffix cache could reduce the runtime to O(k), but it would require
+// O(k) extra sketches (~80KB each), which risks significant memory pressure
+// for tables with many nodes.
+//
+// Example with three nodes:
+//
+//	Node 0 all distinct values: {a, b, c}    local singletons: {a, b, c}
+//	Node 1 all distinct values: {b, c, d}    local singletons: {b, d}
+//	Node 2 all distinct values: {c, e, f}    local singletons: {e, f}
+//
+// True global frequencies: a×1, b×2, c×3, d×1, e×1, f×1
+// True singletons = 4  (the values {a, d, e, f} appear exactly once globally)
+//
+//	Node 0: others' NDV = {b,c,d,e,f} (size 5)
+//	        + node 0 singletons {a,b,c} = {a,b,c,d,e,f} (size 6)
+//	        contribution = 1  (only `a` is new)
+//
+//	Node 1: others' NDV = {a,b,c,e,f} (size 5)
+//	        + node 1 singletons {b,d} = {a,b,c,d,e,f} (size 6)
+//	        contribution = 1  (only `d` is new)
+//
+//	Node 2: others' NDV = {a,b,c,d} (size 4)
+//	        + node 2 singletons {e,f} = {a,b,c,d,e,f} (size 6)
+//	        contribution = 2  (`e` and `f` are new)
+//
+// Estimated singletons = 1 + 1 + 2 = 4
+func EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches []*FMSketch) uint64 {
+	// Defensive checks.
+	intest.Assert(len(ndvSketches) > 0, "ndvSketches shouldn't be empty")
+	intest.Assert(len(ndvSketches) == len(singletonSketches), "ndvSketches and singletonSketches should have the same length")
+	intest.AssertFunc(func() bool {
+		for _, ndvSketch := range ndvSketches {
+			if ndvSketch == nil {
+				return false
+			}
+		}
+		return true
+	}, "ndvSketches must not contain nil entries")
+	intest.AssertFunc(func() bool {
+		for _, singletonSketch := range singletonSketches {
+			if singletonSketch == nil {
+				return false
+			}
+		}
+		return true
+	}, "singletonSketches must not contain nil entries")
+	if len(ndvSketches) == 0 || len(ndvSketches) != len(singletonSketches) {
+		return 0
+	}
+
+	mid := len(ndvSketches) - len(ndvSketches)/2
+	var leftHalfNDV *FMSketch
+	for _, sketch := range ndvSketches[:mid] {
+		leftHalfNDV = mergeCopiedFMSketch(leftHalfNDV, sketch)
+	}
+	var rightHalfNDV *FMSketch
+	for _, sketch := range ndvSketches[mid:] {
+		rightHalfNDV = mergeCopiedFMSketch(rightHalfNDV, sketch)
+	}
+
+	// NOTE: For each node, we still merge every other node's NDV sketch.
+	globalSingleton := estimateGlobalSingletonInRange(ndvSketches[:mid], singletonSketches[:mid], rightHalfNDV)
+	globalSingleton += estimateGlobalSingletonInRange(ndvSketches[mid:], singletonSketches[mid:], leftHalfNDV)
+	// SAFETY: Each per-node contribution is clamped to >= 0 before accumulation.
+	intest.Assert(globalSingleton >= 0, "globalSingleton must be positive")
+	return uint64(globalSingleton)
+}
+
+func estimateGlobalSingletonInRange(ndvSketches, singletonSketches []*FMSketch, outOfRangeNDVSketch *FMSketch) int64 {
+	var globalSingleton int64
+	// prefixNDVSketch accumulates ndvSketches[0..i-1] as i advances, so
+	// each iteration only rebuilds the suffix (ndvSketches[i+1..]) from
+	// scratch instead of the full "all-except-i" set.
+	var prefixNDVSketch *FMSketch
+	for i := range ndvSketches {
+		other := mergeCopiedFMSketch(nil, prefixNDVSketch)
+		for _, sketch := range ndvSketches[i+1:] {
+			other = mergeCopiedFMSketch(other, sketch)
+		}
+		other = mergeCopiedFMSketch(other, outOfRangeNDVSketch)
+
+		// NDV of the union of all other nodes before merging this node's singletons.
+		ndvOther := other.NDV()
+		other = mergeCopiedFMSketch(other, singletonSketches[i])
+
+		// NDV of the union after merging this node's singleton sketch.
+		ndvUnion := other.NDV()
+		// FM sketch NDV estimates are not monotone under merge, so the estimated
+		// union can be smaller than ndvOther. Clamp the per-node contribution to 0.
+		// In practice, this appears to be fairly rare.
+		globalSingleton += max(0, ndvUnion-ndvOther)
+		prefixNDVSketch = mergeCopiedFMSketch(prefixNDVSketch, ndvSketches[i])
+	}
+	return globalSingleton
+}
+
+func mergeCopiedFMSketch(dst, src *FMSketch) *FMSketch {
+	if src == nil {
+		return dst
+	}
+	if dst == nil {
+		return src.Copy()
+	}
+	dst.MergeFMSketch(src)
+	return dst
+}
diff --git a/pkg/statistics/estimate_test.go b/pkg/statistics/estimate_test.go
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..568cea568953e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/pkg/statistics/estimate_test.go
@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
+// Copyright 2026 PingCAP, Inc.
+//
+// Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
+// you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
+// You may obtain a copy of the License at
+//
+//     http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
+//
+// Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
+// distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+// WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
+// See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
+// limitations under the License.
+
+package statistics
+
+import (
+	"testing"
+
+	"github.com/pingcap/tidb/pkg/types"
+	"github.com/pingcap/tidb/pkg/util/mock"
+	"github.com/stretchr/testify/require"
+)
+
+// newFMSketchFromHashValues builds an FM sketch by directly inserting hash values.
+// With a large maxSize and few values, the sketch gives exact NDV (mask stays 0).
+func newFMSketchFromHashValues(vals ...uint64) *FMSketch {
+	s := NewFMSketch(1000)
+	for _, v := range vals {
+		s.insertHashValue(v)
+	}
+	return s
+}
+
+// newFMSketchesFromSamples builds a pair of sketches from the same sample rows:
+// the NDV sketch sees every sample, while the singleton sketch keeps only
+// values that occur exactly once in that sample set.
+func newFMSketchesFromSamples(t *testing.T, maxSize int, samples ...int64) (*FMSketch, *FMSketch) {
+	t.Helper()
+	ctx := mock.NewContext()
+	ndvSketch := NewFMSketch(maxSize)
+	singletonSketch := NewFMSketch(maxSize)
+	counts := make(map[int64]int, len(samples))
+	for _, v := range samples {
+		counts[v]++
+		err := ndvSketch.InsertValue(ctx.GetSessionVars().StmtCtx, types.NewIntDatum(v))
+		require.NoError(t, err)
+	}
+	for _, v := range samples {
+		if counts[v] != 1 {
+			continue
+		}
+		err := singletonSketch.InsertValue(ctx.GetSessionVars().StmtCtx, types.NewIntDatum(v))
+		require.NoError(t, err)
+		delete(counts, v)
+	}
+	return ndvSketch, singletonSketch
+}
+
+func TestEstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(t *testing.T) {
+	// Use distinct hash values to represent distinct data values.
+	// With maxSize=1000 and few insertions, mask stays 0 so NDV = len(hashset) (exact).
+	const (
+		a = uint64(100)
+		b = uint64(200)
+		c = uint64(300)
+		d = uint64(400)
+		e = uint64(500)
+		f = uint64(600)
+	)
+
+	t.Run("DocCommentExample", func(t *testing.T) {
+		// Node 0: all distinct = {a, b, c}, local singletons = {a, b, c}
+		// Node 1: all distinct = {b, c, d}, local singletons = {b, d}
+		// Node 2: all distinct = {c, e, f}, local singletons = {e, f}
+		// Global singletons = {a, d, e, f} = 4
+		ndvSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b, c),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(b, c, d),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, e, f),
+		}
+		singletonSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b, c),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(b, d),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(e, f),
+		}
+		got := EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches)
+		require.Equal(t, uint64(4), got)
+	})
+
+	t.Run("SingleNode", func(t *testing.T) {
+		// With one node, all local singletons are global singletons.
+		ndvSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b, c),
+		}
+		singletonSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b, c),
+		}
+		got := EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches)
+		require.Equal(t, uint64(3), got)
+	})
+
+	t.Run("NoOverlap", func(t *testing.T) {
+		// Nodes have disjoint values. All local singletons are global singletons.
+		ndvSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, d),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(e, f),
+		}
+		singletonSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, d),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(e, f),
+		}
+		got := EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches)
+		require.Equal(t, uint64(6), got)
+	})
+
+	t.Run("FullOverlap", func(t *testing.T) {
+		// Every local singleton also appears in another node's NDV.
+		// Node 0: all = {a, b}, singletons = {a, b}
+		// Node 1: all = {a, b}, singletons = {a, b}
+		// No value is unique to a single node → 0 global singletons.
+		ndvSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b),
+		}
+		singletonSketches := []*FMSketch{
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b),
+			newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b),
+		}
+		got := EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches)
+		require.Equal(t, uint64(0), got)
+	})
+
+	t.Run("NegativeContributionIsClamped", func(t *testing.T) {
+		// Both sketches are built from the same local samples.
+		//
+		// Node 0 samples: [0]
+		// Node 1 samples: [0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 4, 7]
+		//
+		// The true global singleton set is {4, 7}, so the result should be 2.
+		// Before the fix, node 0's contribution could become negative due to FM
+		// sketch merge behavior, making the final estimate incorrect.
+		ndv0, singleton0 := newFMSketchesFromSamples(t, 3, 0)
+		ndv1, singleton1 := newFMSketchesFromSamples(t, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 4, 7)
+		ndvSketches := []*FMSketch{ndv0, ndv1}
+		singletonSketches := []*FMSketch{singleton0, singleton1}
+
+		got := EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches)
+		require.Equal(t, uint64(2), got)
+	})
+
+	t.Run("NilEntry", func(t *testing.T) {
+		require.PanicsWithValue(t, "assert failed, ndvSketches must not contain nil entries", func() {
+			EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(
+				[]*FMSketch{nil, newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, d)},
+				[]*FMSketch{newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b), newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, d)},
+			)
+		})
+		require.PanicsWithValue(t, "assert failed, singletonSketches must not contain nil entries", func() {
+			EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(
+				[]*FMSketch{newFMSketchFromHashValues(a, b), newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, d)},
+				[]*FMSketch{nil, newFMSketchFromHashValues(c, d)},
+			)
+		})
+	})
+
+	t.Run("EmptyInput", func(t *testing.T) {
+		require.PanicsWithValue(t, "assert failed, ndvSketches shouldn't be empty", func() {
+			EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(nil, nil)
+		})
+	})
+
+	t.Run("MismatchedLengths", func(t *testing.T) {
+		ndvSketches := []*FMSketch{newFMSketchFromHashValues(a)}
+		singletonSketches := []*FMSketch{newFMSketchFromHashValues(a), newFMSketchFromHashValues(b)}
+		require.PanicsWithValue(t, "assert failed, ndvSketches and singletonSketches should have the same length", func() {
+			EstimateGlobalSingletonBySketches(ndvSketches, singletonSketches)
+		})
+	})
+}